Sunday, January 15, 2006
On the Brink, Or Over the Edge ...
Michelle Malkin thinks we're on the brink of war with Iran.
Frankly, I think that's an optimistic assessment. I'm just your basic Texas mom, with a junior and a senior in High School -- I'm no great thinker or political analyst ... but, over the years, I've gotten used to looking out for my kids.
For example -- there's a kid who's a complete scum. We've known since he was 8 that he was a compulsive liar. Really, if he said it was raining, you'd want to check the sky.
A couple of years ago, YoungRoosterBudgie was invited to a birthday party by the kid -- and since the kid was reportedly trying to "turn over a new leaf," we gave the benefit of the doubt.
About two hours after I dropped my son off ... I began to get a horrific prickling on the back of my neck. Against all rationality, I had this dark forboding that things weren't going well. I did try to talk myself out of the feeling for about an hour, then gave up, and drove back to the birthday party -- just to check on things.
YoungRooster was sitting in the shadows of the kid's front lawn. He got in the car and asked if he could come home.
Bad. Things. Had. Happened. And, somehow, my son had managed to be a block away when events transpired ... yet another event in YoungRooster's life that makes me believe in a Merciful God, and long suffering Guardian angels. But, that's a topic for another post.
Anyway, as I've watched the events unfold in Iran, I've gotten a similar sinking feeling of dread. I wish Grandma Budgie were still alive. She was 18 when we went to war with Germany, and I'd love to discuss current events with her. But, she's passed to a better place, as have most of the members of the generation who knew how to fight a war -- and how to recognize evil.
So, here's how international events are coming together for me.
The Iranians are nuts. And, if they don't have nukes yet, they will. They do not care about international sanctions, but they do have plenty of ties with terrorist groups. And, they've never meant the US any good. (Thankyou, Mr. Carter, for allowing the current regeime to come into power.)
Frankly, I think the only thing that would stop the Iranians is military action now, combined with some serious US bombing runs. But, as I noted yesterday, it doesn't look like the US will do it. I'm not sure that Israel will, either.
The international strategy seems to be to stall until Iran gets nukes. Of course, that's the mullahs' strategy, and it's working.
Europe will fool around with interminable diplomacy, which will win elections for the EU leaders, pacify their own Muslim voting block -- and ensure Iranian oil.
China will continue to support Iran, and get the oil. Russia is already waffling about even bringing Iran up for discussion in the Security council.
I'm also not at all hopeful that there will be some magical overthrow of the theocratic government, any more than the Iraqi's were able to overthrow Saddam. They shoot, torture, and jail dissidents; it's a real damper on any democratic movement.
So, where does that leave us? I don't think anything will happen in the near future. I think the Iranians will continue to develop their nuclear program, and get nuclear bombs, if they don't already have them. And, looks like we're going to let it happen.
This will establish Iran as a super-power in the Middle East, with both limitless oil and nuclear armaments. The question is ... what will the mullahs do with the status?
For one thing, they'll be in a position to nuke Tel Aviv, and peace loving Muslims all over the world will rejoice.
They'd also be in a position to give real nuclear bombs (not just the low level "dirty bombs") to terrorists who'd love to enter Paradise by vaporizing themselves and a few hundred thousand Americans at the same time. And, while they're running their buddy, Hugo Chavez's oil refineries, why not slip him a couple of nukes as well?
I've heard various pathetically short sighted US "progressives" ask why the US should have nuclear arms and Iran shouldn't. Short answer: We know what the US will do with nuclear weapons. We've demonstrated over the period of fifty years that we can be trusted not to use them frivilously.
The guy with his finger on the button over in Iran lives in a sort of religious fantasy-land where Allah graces the hairs on his head with Divine light ...
With nuclear power and limitless oil, Iran can get America to dance to its tune. They'll definately want us to get out of the Middle East ... which means abandoning Iraq, Israel and Saudi, and incidentally clears the way for the mullahs to re-establish the Caliphate -- with themselves at the head, and after the murder of millions of our former allies.
I'm sure they'll think up other things they want the US to do, too. With nukes, if we get balky, they can blow away a city ... then threaten to vaporize another one if we don't comply with them. After all, we're just infidels to them ... and for anyone who still believes that the Koran protects "the people of the book," meaning Jews and Christians, take a hard look at how well Arab Muslim societies have treated "dhimmi's" over the centuries.
The mullahs would blow any one of us, or all of us, away, without a second of regret. And, they just might not understand that in return, we turn their country into a parking lot in retaliation.
I think the cold war's back, with a twist. For decades, the US and Russia threatened each other with nuclear annihilation. Both sides were rational enough to understand what that meant -- and the use of nukes was avoided. The world lived.
Restraint has not been a hallmark of Iranian government.
Here's the choice I see: If we do nothing now, we have to go nuclear later.
It's stark, and we have no happy choices at this point in time, but that's where the paths of logic lead, and I hope the mullahs have thought about that in their delight over their newly resumed nuclear research. If the mullahs foster one nuclear "event" in our country, they're on a short road to a large parking lot.
Incidentally, if you want to know the state of our own nuclear stockpile, click to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, out of U.of Chicago. Looks like we've got plenty of nuclear missiles, in a variety of forms, with a bunch of new strategies -- and they're all in pretty good shape. You might notice that the Doomsday Clock, at the top of the page, is only 7 minutes to midnight. But, that was back in 2002.
That's the world my kids are graduating into. If we're really thinking about our kids, we'll do what it takes to "de-nuclearify" Iran now, before the situation escalates.
Of course, if we deal with Iran now, that at least gives today's teenagers the space to get educated and on their feet before they have to deal with ... oh, say, China ...
(photo above from PowerlineBlog. It's from Jan2nd, and shows new construction, including "hidden entrances.")
UPDATE: Looks like TheDiscerningTexan is having a few misgivings as well. If you haven't read Neil Ferguson's article on the war of 2007, it's worth taking a look at. ¶ 8:00 AM
Michelle Malkin thinks we're on the brink of war with Iran.Frankly, I think that's an optimistic assessment. I'm just your basic Texas mom, with a junior and a senior in High School -- I'm no great thinker or political analyst ... but, over the years, I've gotten used to looking out for my kids.
For example -- there's a kid who's a complete scum. We've known since he was 8 that he was a compulsive liar. Really, if he said it was raining, you'd want to check the sky.
A couple of years ago, YoungRoosterBudgie was invited to a birthday party by the kid -- and since the kid was reportedly trying to "turn over a new leaf," we gave the benefit of the doubt.
About two hours after I dropped my son off ... I began to get a horrific prickling on the back of my neck. Against all rationality, I had this dark forboding that things weren't going well. I did try to talk myself out of the feeling for about an hour, then gave up, and drove back to the birthday party -- just to check on things.
YoungRooster was sitting in the shadows of the kid's front lawn. He got in the car and asked if he could come home.
Bad. Things. Had. Happened. And, somehow, my son had managed to be a block away when events transpired ... yet another event in YoungRooster's life that makes me believe in a Merciful God, and long suffering Guardian angels. But, that's a topic for another post.
Anyway, as I've watched the events unfold in Iran, I've gotten a similar sinking feeling of dread. I wish Grandma Budgie were still alive. She was 18 when we went to war with Germany, and I'd love to discuss current events with her. But, she's passed to a better place, as have most of the members of the generation who knew how to fight a war -- and how to recognize evil.
So, here's how international events are coming together for me.
The Iranians are nuts. And, if they don't have nukes yet, they will. They do not care about international sanctions, but they do have plenty of ties with terrorist groups. And, they've never meant the US any good. (Thankyou, Mr. Carter, for allowing the current regeime to come into power.)
Frankly, I think the only thing that would stop the Iranians is military action now, combined with some serious US bombing runs. But, as I noted yesterday, it doesn't look like the US will do it. I'm not sure that Israel will, either.
The international strategy seems to be to stall until Iran gets nukes. Of course, that's the mullahs' strategy, and it's working.
Europe will fool around with interminable diplomacy, which will win elections for the EU leaders, pacify their own Muslim voting block -- and ensure Iranian oil.
China will continue to support Iran, and get the oil. Russia is already waffling about even bringing Iran up for discussion in the Security council.
I'm also not at all hopeful that there will be some magical overthrow of the theocratic government, any more than the Iraqi's were able to overthrow Saddam. They shoot, torture, and jail dissidents; it's a real damper on any democratic movement.
So, where does that leave us? I don't think anything will happen in the near future. I think the Iranians will continue to develop their nuclear program, and get nuclear bombs, if they don't already have them. And, looks like we're going to let it happen.
This will establish Iran as a super-power in the Middle East, with both limitless oil and nuclear armaments. The question is ... what will the mullahs do with the status?
For one thing, they'll be in a position to nuke Tel Aviv, and peace loving Muslims all over the world will rejoice.
They'd also be in a position to give real nuclear bombs (not just the low level "dirty bombs") to terrorists who'd love to enter Paradise by vaporizing themselves and a few hundred thousand Americans at the same time. And, while they're running their buddy, Hugo Chavez's oil refineries, why not slip him a couple of nukes as well?
I've heard various pathetically short sighted US "progressives" ask why the US should have nuclear arms and Iran shouldn't. Short answer: We know what the US will do with nuclear weapons. We've demonstrated over the period of fifty years that we can be trusted not to use them frivilously.
The guy with his finger on the button over in Iran lives in a sort of religious fantasy-land where Allah graces the hairs on his head with Divine light ...
With nuclear power and limitless oil, Iran can get America to dance to its tune. They'll definately want us to get out of the Middle East ... which means abandoning Iraq, Israel and Saudi, and incidentally clears the way for the mullahs to re-establish the Caliphate -- with themselves at the head, and after the murder of millions of our former allies.
I'm sure they'll think up other things they want the US to do, too. With nukes, if we get balky, they can blow away a city ... then threaten to vaporize another one if we don't comply with them. After all, we're just infidels to them ... and for anyone who still believes that the Koran protects "the people of the book," meaning Jews and Christians, take a hard look at how well Arab Muslim societies have treated "dhimmi's" over the centuries.
The mullahs would blow any one of us, or all of us, away, without a second of regret. And, they just might not understand that in return, we turn their country into a parking lot in retaliation.
I think the cold war's back, with a twist. For decades, the US and Russia threatened each other with nuclear annihilation. Both sides were rational enough to understand what that meant -- and the use of nukes was avoided. The world lived.
Restraint has not been a hallmark of Iranian government.
Here's the choice I see: If we do nothing now, we have to go nuclear later.
It's stark, and we have no happy choices at this point in time, but that's where the paths of logic lead, and I hope the mullahs have thought about that in their delight over their newly resumed nuclear research. If the mullahs foster one nuclear "event" in our country, they're on a short road to a large parking lot.
Incidentally, if you want to know the state of our own nuclear stockpile, click to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, out of U.of Chicago. Looks like we've got plenty of nuclear missiles, in a variety of forms, with a bunch of new strategies -- and they're all in pretty good shape. You might notice that the Doomsday Clock, at the top of the page, is only 7 minutes to midnight. But, that was back in 2002.
That's the world my kids are graduating into. If we're really thinking about our kids, we'll do what it takes to "de-nuclearify" Iran now, before the situation escalates.
Of course, if we deal with Iran now, that at least gives today's teenagers the space to get educated and on their feet before they have to deal with ... oh, say, China ...
(photo above from PowerlineBlog. It's from Jan2nd, and shows new construction, including "hidden entrances.")
UPDATE: Looks like TheDiscerningTexan is having a few misgivings as well. If you haven't read Neil Ferguson's article on the war of 2007, it's worth taking a look at. ¶ 8:00 AM
